Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
